Correct product analytics cohorts and reporting

src/main/kotlin/com/osglab/account/features/admin/routes/AdminRoutes.kt

@@ -604,7 +604,7 @@ private suspend fun AdminStatsService.getRange(
     )
 }
 
-private fun parseAdminStatsRange(range: String?, clock: Clock): Pair<java.time.Instant, java.time.Instant>? {
+internal fun parseAdminStatsRange(range: String?, clock: Clock): Pair<java.time.Instant, java.time.Instant>? {
     val days = when (range) {
         null, "30d" -> 30L
         "7d" -> 7L
@@ -612,7 +612,9 @@ private fun parseAdminStatsRange(range: String?, clock: Clock): Pair<java.time.I
         else -> return null
     }
     val until = clock.instant()
-    return until.minus(Duration.ofDays(days)) to until
+    val firstIncludedDate = until.atZone(ZoneOffset.UTC).toLocalDate().minusDays(days - 1)
+    val from = firstIncludedDate.atStartOfDay(ZoneOffset.UTC).toInstant()
+    return from to until
 }
 
 private data class AdminReferralQueryOptions(
@@ -953,6 +955,7 @@ private fun adminCookie(
 private fun AdminStatsDto.toOverviewResponse(): AdminOverviewResponse {
     val consumedByDate = creditFlow.associateBy { it.date }
     return AdminOverviewResponse(
+        period = period,
         totalUsers = overview.totalUsers,
         activeUsers = overview.activeUsers,
         newUsers = overview.registrations,
@@ -972,12 +975,13 @@ private fun AdminStatsDto.toOverviewResponse(): AdminOverviewResponse {
 
 private fun AdminStatsDto.toReferralResponse(): AdminReferralResponse =
     AdminReferralResponse(
+        period = period,
         pendingBindings = referralFunnel.pendingBindings,
         ineligibleBindings = referralFunnel.ineligibleBindings,
         funnel = listOf(
-            AdminFunnelResponse("邀请码创建", referralFunnel.codesCreated),
             AdminFunnelResponse("成功绑定", referralFunnel.bindings),
-            AdminFunnelResponse("有效使用并奖励", referralFunnel.rewardedBindings),
+            AdminFunnelResponse("绑定后首次 AI 成功", referralFunnel.activatedBindings),
+            AdminFunnelResponse("完成奖励", referralFunnel.rewardedBindings),
         ),
         ranking = referralRanking.map {
             AdminReferralRankResponse(
@@ -1137,6 +1141,7 @@ private data class PageResponse<T>(val items: List<T>, val nextCursor: String? =
 
 @Serializable
 private data class AdminOverviewResponse(
+    val period: com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminStatsPeriodDto,
     val totalUsers: Long,
     val activeUsers: Long,
     val newUsers: Long,
@@ -1156,6 +1161,7 @@ private data class AdminTrendResponse(
 
 @Serializable
 private data class AdminReferralResponse(
+    val period: com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminStatsPeriodDto,
     val pendingBindings: Long,
     val ineligibleBindings: Long,
     val funnel: List<AdminFunnelResponse>,

src/main/kotlin/com/osglab/account/features/admin/stats/models/AdminProductAnalyticsDtos.kt

@@ -34,6 +34,19 @@ data class AdminAnalyticsFeatureUsageDto(
     val successes: Long,
 )
 
+@Serializable
+data class AdminAnalyticsReferralSignalsDto(
+    val shared: Long,
+    val opened: Long,
+)
+
+@Serializable
+data class AdminAnalyticsLatencyBucketDto(
+    val bucket: String,
+    val successful: Long,
+    val failed: Long,
+)
+
 @Serializable
 data class AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto(
     val label: String,
@@ -88,6 +101,8 @@ data class AdminAnalyticsMonetizationDto(
     val conversion7d: AdminAnalyticsRateDto,
     val conversion30d: AdminAnalyticsRateDto,
     val repeatPurchaseRate: AdminAnalyticsRateDto,
+    val purchaseFunnel: List<AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto>,
+    val cancelledUsers: Long,
 )
 
 @Serializable
@@ -95,6 +110,7 @@ data class AdminAnalyticsGuardrailsDto(
     val clientAiSuccessRate: AdminAnalyticsRateDto,
     val managedSuccessRate: AdminAnalyticsRateDto,
     val creditBlockedUsers: Long,
+    val latencyBuckets: List<AdminAnalyticsLatencyBucketDto>,
 )
 
 @Serializable
@@ -130,6 +146,7 @@ data class AdminProductAnalyticsDto(
     val retention: List<AdminAnalyticsCohortDto>,
     val aiFeatures: List<AdminAnalyticsFeatureUsageDto>,
     val keyboardUsage: AdminAnalyticsKeyboardUsageDto,
+    val referralSignals: AdminAnalyticsReferralSignalsDto,
     val referralFunnel: List<AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto>,
     val guardrails: AdminAnalyticsGuardrailsDto,
 )

src/main/kotlin/com/osglab/account/features/admin/stats/models/AdminStatsDtos.kt

@@ -35,6 +35,7 @@ data class AdminCreditFlowPointDto(
 data class AdminReferralFunnelDto(
     val codesCreated: Long,
     val bindings: Long,
+    val activatedBindings: Long,
     val rewardedBindings: Long,
     val pendingBindings: Long,
     val ineligibleBindings: Long,

src/main/kotlin/com/osglab/account/features/admin/stats/repositories/AdminAnalyticsSql.kt

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+package com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.repositories
+
+/**
+ * Canonical AI value events used by product analytics. Managed usage is sourced
+ * from immutable billing records; LOCAL and BYOK usage comes from terminal
+ * client events. No user content is selected.
+ */
+internal fun identityValueEventsCte(): String =
+    """
+    WITH value_events AS (
+        SELECT
+            CONCAT('a:', user_id) AS identity_key,
+            created_at AS occurred_at
+        FROM credit_usage_records
+        UNION ALL
+        SELECT
+            COALESCE(
+                CONCAT('a:', i.account_id),
+                CONCAT('i:', e.installation_hash)
+            ) AS identity_key,
+            e.occurred_at
+        FROM product_analytics_events e
+        JOIN product_analytics_installations i
+          ON i.installation_hash = e.installation_hash
+        WHERE e.event_name = 'AI_FEATURE_SUCCEEDED'
+          AND e.execution_mode IN ('LOCAL', 'BYOK')
+    )
+    """.trimIndent()
+

src/main/kotlin/com/osglab/account/features/admin/stats/repositories/AdminProductAnalyticsRepository.kt

@@ -74,6 +74,19 @@ data class AdminAnalyticsGuardrailRow(
     val creditBlockedUsers: Long,
 )
 
+data class AdminAnalyticsLatencyRow(
+    val bucket: String,
+    val successful: Long,
+    val failed: Long,
+)
+
+data class AdminAnalyticsPurchaseFunnelRow(
+    val viewed: Long,
+    val started: Long,
+    val verified: Long,
+    val cancelled: Long,
+)
+
 data class AdminAnalyticsKeyboardUsageRow(
     val activeUsers: Long,
     val keyboardUsers: Long,
@@ -95,7 +108,6 @@ data class AdminAnalyticsGrowthFunnelRow(
     val opened: Long,
     val registered: Long,
     val activated: Long,
-    val retainedD7: Long,
     val purchased: Long,
 )
 
@@ -120,6 +132,8 @@ data class AdminProductAnalyticsSnapshot(
     val keyboardUsage: AdminAnalyticsKeyboardUsageRow,
     val referrals: AdminAnalyticsReferralRow,
     val guardrails: AdminAnalyticsGuardrailRow,
+    val latencyDistribution: List<AdminAnalyticsLatencyRow>,
+    val purchaseFunnel: AdminAnalyticsPurchaseFunnelRow,
 )
 
 interface AdminProductAnalyticsRepository {
@@ -142,7 +156,7 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
         AdminProductAnalyticsSnapshot(
             currentWeeklyUsers = loadValueActiveUsers(currentWeek),
             previousWeeklyUsers = loadValueActiveUsers(previousWeek),
-            newInstallations = activation.denominator,
+            newInstallations = loadNewInstallations(range),
             newAccounts = loadNewAccounts(range),
             activation24h = AdminAnalyticsCountRow(activation.activated, activation.denominator),
             medianTimeToValueMinutes = activation.medianMinutes,
@@ -166,12 +180,14 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
             keyboardUsage = loadKeyboardUsage(range),
             referrals = loadReferrals(range),
             guardrails = loadGuardrails(range),
+            latencyDistribution = loadLatencyDistribution(range),
+            purchaseFunnel = loadPurchaseFunnel(range),
         )
     }
 
     private fun loadValueActiveUsers(window: AdminAnalyticsWindow): Long =
         querySingle(
-            valueEventsCte() +
+            identityValueEventsCte() +
                 """
                 SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT identity_key) AS aggregate_value
                 FROM value_events
@@ -190,6 +206,21 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
             range.arguments(),
         ) { it.exactLong("aggregate_value") }
 
+    private fun loadNewInstallations(range: AdminAnalyticsWindow): Long =
+        querySingle(
+            """
+            SELECT COUNT(*) AS aggregate_value
+            FROM (
+                SELECT installation_hash, MIN(occurred_at) AS opened_at
+                FROM product_analytics_events
+                WHERE event_name = 'FIRST_OPEN'
+                GROUP BY installation_hash
+            ) first_open
+            WHERE opened_at >= ? AND opened_at < ?
+            """,
+            range.arguments(),
+        ) { it.exactLong("aggregate_value") }
+
     private fun loadActivation(range: AdminAnalyticsWindow): ActivationRow =
         querySingle(
             """
@@ -197,21 +228,30 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
                 SELECT installation_hash, MIN(occurred_at) AS opened_at
                 FROM product_analytics_events
                 WHERE event_name = 'FIRST_OPEN'
-                  AND occurred_at >= ? AND occurred_at < ?
                 GROUP BY installation_hash
+                HAVING opened_at >= ?
+                   AND opened_at <= DATE_SUB(?, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
             ),
             client_value AS (
-                SELECT installation_hash, MIN(occurred_at) AS value_at
-                FROM product_analytics_events
-                WHERE event_name = 'AI_FEATURE_SUCCEEDED'
-                  AND execution_mode IN ('LOCAL', 'BYOK')
-                GROUP BY installation_hash
+                SELECT e.installation_hash, MIN(e.occurred_at) AS value_at
+                FROM first_open o
+                JOIN product_analytics_events e
+                  ON e.installation_hash = o.installation_hash
+                WHERE e.event_name = 'AI_FEATURE_SUCCEEDED'
+                  AND e.execution_mode IN ('LOCAL', 'BYOK')
+                  AND e.occurred_at >= o.opened_at
+                  AND e.occurred_at <= DATE_ADD(o.opened_at, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
+                GROUP BY e.installation_hash
             ),
             managed_value AS (
-                SELECT i.installation_hash, MIN(u.created_at) AS value_at
-                FROM product_analytics_installations i
+                SELECT o.installation_hash, MIN(u.created_at) AS value_at
+                FROM first_open o
+                JOIN product_analytics_installations i
+                  ON i.installation_hash = o.installation_hash
                 JOIN credit_usage_records u ON u.user_id = i.account_id
-                GROUP BY i.installation_hash
+                WHERE u.created_at >= o.opened_at
+                  AND u.created_at <= DATE_ADD(o.opened_at, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
+                GROUP BY o.installation_hash
             ),
             first_value_by_install AS (
                 SELECT installation_hash, MIN(value_at) AS value_at
@@ -228,8 +268,6 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
                     TIMESTAMPDIFF(SECOND, o.opened_at, v.value_at) AS seconds_to_value
                 FROM first_open o
                 JOIN first_value_by_install v ON v.installation_hash = o.installation_hash
-                WHERE v.value_at >= o.opened_at
-                  AND v.value_at <= DATE_ADD(o.opened_at, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
             ),
             ranked AS (
                 SELECT
@@ -277,21 +315,30 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
                     ) AS channel
                 FROM product_analytics_events e
                 WHERE e.event_name = 'FIRST_OPEN'
-                  AND e.occurred_at >= ? AND e.occurred_at < ?
                 GROUP BY e.installation_hash
+                HAVING opened_at >= ?
+                   AND opened_at <= DATE_SUB(?, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
             ),
             client_value AS (
-                SELECT installation_hash, MIN(occurred_at) AS value_at
-                FROM product_analytics_events
-                WHERE event_name = 'AI_FEATURE_SUCCEEDED'
-                  AND execution_mode IN ('LOCAL', 'BYOK')
-                GROUP BY installation_hash
+                SELECT e.installation_hash, MIN(e.occurred_at) AS value_at
+                FROM first_open o
+                JOIN product_analytics_events e
+                  ON e.installation_hash = o.installation_hash
+                WHERE e.event_name = 'AI_FEATURE_SUCCEEDED'
+                  AND e.execution_mode IN ('LOCAL', 'BYOK')
+                  AND e.occurred_at >= o.opened_at
+                  AND e.occurred_at <= DATE_ADD(o.opened_at, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
+                GROUP BY e.installation_hash
             ),
             managed_value AS (
-                SELECT i.installation_hash, MIN(u.created_at) AS value_at
-                FROM product_analytics_installations i
+                SELECT o.installation_hash, MIN(u.created_at) AS value_at
+                FROM first_open o
+                JOIN product_analytics_installations i
+                  ON i.installation_hash = o.installation_hash
                 JOIN credit_usage_records u ON u.user_id = i.account_id
-                GROUP BY i.installation_hash
+                WHERE u.created_at >= o.opened_at
+                  AND u.created_at <= DATE_ADD(o.opened_at, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
+                GROUP BY o.installation_hash
             ),
             first_value_by_install AS (
                 SELECT installation_hash, MIN(value_at) AS value_at
@@ -307,9 +354,7 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
                 COUNT(*) AS installations,
                 SUM(
                     CASE
-                        WHEN v.value_at >= o.opened_at
-                         AND v.value_at <= DATE_ADD(o.opened_at, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
-                        THEN 1 ELSE 0
+                        WHEN v.value_at IS NOT NULL THEN 1 ELSE 0
                     END
                 ) AS activated
             FROM first_open o
@@ -397,10 +442,8 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
             )
         }
 
-    private fun loadMonetization(range: AdminAnalyticsWindow): AdminAnalyticsMonetizationRow {
-        val sevenDayMaturity = range.until.minusSeconds(7 * DAY_SECONDS)
-        val thirtyDayMaturity = range.until.minusSeconds(30 * DAY_SECONDS)
-        return querySingle(
+    private fun loadMonetization(range: AdminAnalyticsWindow): AdminAnalyticsMonetizationRow =
+        querySingle(
             """
             WITH first_purchase AS (
                 SELECT user_id, MIN(purchased_at) AS first_purchased_at, COUNT(*) AS lifetime_purchases
@@ -459,10 +502,10 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
             """,
             buildList {
                 addAll(range.arguments(repetitions = 3))
-                addAll(maturedWindowArguments(range.from, sevenDayMaturity))
-                addAll(maturedWindowArguments(range.from, sevenDayMaturity))
-                addAll(maturedWindowArguments(range.from, thirtyDayMaturity))
-                addAll(maturedWindowArguments(range.from, thirtyDayMaturity))
+                addAll(maturedCohortArguments(range, 7))
+                addAll(maturedCohortArguments(range, 7))
+                addAll(maturedCohortArguments(range, 30))
+                addAll(maturedCohortArguments(range, 30))
             },
         ) {
             AdminAnalyticsMonetizationRow(
@@ -483,7 +526,6 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
                 ),
             )
         }
-    }
 
     private fun loadGrowthFunnel(range: AdminAnalyticsWindow): AdminAnalyticsGrowthFunnelRow =
         querySingle(
@@ -492,8 +534,22 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
                 SELECT installation_hash, MIN(occurred_at) AS opened_at
                 FROM product_analytics_events
                 WHERE event_name = 'FIRST_OPEN'
-                  AND occurred_at >= ? AND occurred_at < ?
                 GROUP BY installation_hash
+                HAVING opened_at >= ?
+                   AND opened_at <= DATE_SUB(?, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
+            ),
+            registered AS (
+                SELECT
+                    o.installation_hash,
+                    o.opened_at,
+                    i.account_id,
+                    a.created_at AS registered_at
+                FROM first_open o
+                JOIN product_analytics_installations i
+                  ON i.installation_hash = o.installation_hash
+                JOIN accounts a ON a.id = i.account_id
+                WHERE a.created_at >= o.opened_at
+                  AND a.created_at <= DATE_ADD(o.opened_at, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
             ),
             client_values AS (
                 SELECT installation_hash, occurred_at
@@ -513,63 +569,42 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
             ),
             activated AS (
                 SELECT
-                    o.installation_hash,
-                    o.opened_at,
+                    r.installation_hash,
+                    r.opened_at,
+                    r.account_id,
                     MIN(v.occurred_at) AS first_value_at
-                FROM first_open o
-                JOIN values_by_install v ON v.installation_hash = o.installation_hash
-                WHERE v.occurred_at >= o.opened_at
-                  AND v.occurred_at <= DATE_ADD(o.opened_at, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
-                GROUP BY o.installation_hash, o.opened_at
+                FROM registered r
+                JOIN values_by_install v ON v.installation_hash = r.installation_hash
+                WHERE v.occurred_at >= r.registered_at
+                  AND v.occurred_at <= DATE_ADD(r.opened_at, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
+                GROUP BY r.installation_hash, r.opened_at, r.account_id
+            ),
+            purchased AS (
+                SELECT DISTINCT a.installation_hash
+                FROM activated a
+                JOIN storekit_credit_purchases p ON p.user_id = a.account_id
+                WHERE p.purchased_at >= a.first_value_at
+                  AND p.purchased_at <= DATE_ADD(a.opened_at, INTERVAL 24 HOUR)
             )
             SELECT
                 (SELECT COUNT(*) FROM first_open) AS opened,
-                (
-                    SELECT COUNT(*)
-                    FROM first_open o
-                    JOIN product_analytics_installations i
-                      ON i.installation_hash = o.installation_hash
-                    WHERE i.account_id IS NOT NULL
-                ) AS registered,
+                (SELECT COUNT(*) FROM registered) AS registered,
                 (SELECT COUNT(*) FROM activated) AS activated,
-                (
-                    SELECT COUNT(*)
-                    FROM activated a
-                    WHERE EXISTS (
-                        SELECT 1
-                        FROM values_by_install v
-                        WHERE v.installation_hash = a.installation_hash
-                          AND DATE(v.occurred_at) = DATE_ADD(DATE(a.first_value_at), INTERVAL 7 DAY)
-                    )
-                ) AS retained_d7,
-                (
-                    SELECT COUNT(*)
-                    FROM first_open o
-                    JOIN product_analytics_installations i
-                      ON i.installation_hash = o.installation_hash
-                    WHERE EXISTS (
-                        SELECT 1
-                        FROM storekit_credit_purchases p
-                        WHERE p.user_id = i.account_id
-                          AND p.purchased_at >= o.opened_at
-                          AND p.purchased_at < ?
-                    )
-                ) AS purchased
+                (SELECT COUNT(*) FROM purchased) AS purchased
             """,
-            range.arguments() + listOf(INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to range.until),
+            range.arguments(),
         ) {
             AdminAnalyticsGrowthFunnelRow(
                 opened = it.exactLong("opened"),
                 registered = it.exactLong("registered"),
                 activated = it.exactLong("activated"),
-                retainedD7 = it.exactLong("retained_d7"),
                 purchased = it.exactLong("purchased"),
             )
         }
 
     private fun loadRetention(range: AdminAnalyticsWindow): List<AdminAnalyticsCohortRow> =
         queryRows(
-            valueEventsCte() +
+            identityValueEventsCte() +
                 """
                 , first_value_by_identity AS (
                     SELECT identity_key, MIN(occurred_at) AS first_value_at
@@ -737,7 +772,7 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
 
     private fun loadReferrals(range: AdminAnalyticsWindow): AdminAnalyticsReferralRow =
         querySingle(
-            valueEventsCte() +
+            identityValueEventsCte() +
                 """
                 SELECT
                     (
@@ -755,7 +790,7 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
                         SELECT COALESCE(SUM(counter_value), 0)
                         FROM product_analytics_daily_counters
                         WHERE counter_name = 'INVITE_PAGE_OPENED'
-                          AND counter_date >= DATE(?) AND counter_date < DATE(?)
+                          AND counter_date >= DATE(?) AND counter_date <= DATE(?)
                     ) AS opened,
                     (
                         SELECT COUNT(*)
@@ -779,12 +814,14 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
                         FROM referral_bindings
                         WHERE bound_at >= ? AND bound_at < ?
                           AND reward_status = 'REWARDED'
+                          AND rewarded_at < ?
                     ) AS rewarded
                 """,
             buildList {
                 addAll(range.arguments(repetitions = 5))
                 add(INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to range.until)
                 addAll(range.arguments())
+                add(INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to range.until)
             },
         ) {
             AdminAnalyticsReferralRow(
@@ -796,6 +833,91 @@ class ExposedAdminProductAnalyticsRepository(
             )
         }
 
+    private fun loadLatencyDistribution(range: AdminAnalyticsWindow): List<AdminAnalyticsLatencyRow> =
+        queryRows(
+            """
+            SELECT
+                duration_bucket,
+                SUM(CASE WHEN event_name = 'AI_FEATURE_SUCCEEDED' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS successful,
+                SUM(CASE WHEN event_name = 'AI_FEATURE_FAILED' THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS failed
+            FROM product_analytics_events
+            WHERE occurred_at >= ? AND occurred_at < ?
+              AND event_name IN ('AI_FEATURE_SUCCEEDED', 'AI_FEATURE_FAILED')
+              AND duration_bucket IS NOT NULL
+            GROUP BY duration_bucket
+            ORDER BY FIELD(
+                duration_bucket,
+                'LT_1S',
+                'S1_TO_3',
+                'S3_TO_10',
+                'S10_TO_30',
+                'GTE_30S'
+            )
+            """,
+            range.arguments(),
+        ) {
+            AdminAnalyticsLatencyRow(
+                bucket = it.getString("duration_bucket"),
+                successful = it.exactLong("successful"),
+                failed = it.exactLong("failed"),
+            )
+        }
+
+    private fun loadPurchaseFunnel(range: AdminAnalyticsWindow): AdminAnalyticsPurchaseFunnelRow =
+        querySingle(
+            """
+            WITH viewed AS (
+                SELECT installation_hash, MIN(occurred_at) AS viewed_at
+                FROM product_analytics_events
+                WHERE event_name = 'PURCHASE_VIEWED'
+                  AND occurred_at >= ? AND occurred_at < ?
+                GROUP BY installation_hash
+            ),
+            started AS (
+                SELECT v.installation_hash, MIN(e.occurred_at) AS started_at
+                FROM viewed v
+                JOIN product_analytics_events e
+                  ON e.installation_hash = v.installation_hash
+                 AND e.event_name = 'PURCHASE_STARTED'
+                 AND e.occurred_at >= v.viewed_at
+                 AND e.occurred_at < ?
+                GROUP BY v.installation_hash
+            ),
+            verified AS (
+                SELECT DISTINCT s.installation_hash
+                FROM started s
+                JOIN product_analytics_installations i
+                  ON i.installation_hash = s.installation_hash
+                JOIN storekit_credit_purchases p ON p.user_id = i.account_id
+                WHERE p.purchased_at >= s.started_at
+                  AND p.purchased_at < ?
+            )
+            SELECT
+                (SELECT COUNT(*) FROM viewed) AS viewed,
+                (SELECT COUNT(*) FROM started) AS started,
+                (SELECT COUNT(*) FROM verified) AS verified,
+                (
+                    SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT installation_hash)
+                    FROM product_analytics_events
+                    WHERE event_name = 'PURCHASE_CANCELLED'
+                      AND occurred_at >= ? AND occurred_at < ?
+                ) AS cancelled
+            """,
+            buildList {
+                addAll(range.arguments())
+                add(INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to range.until)
+                add(INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to range.until)
+                addAll(range.arguments())
+            },
+        ) {
+            AdminAnalyticsPurchaseFunnelRow(
+                viewed = it.exactLong("viewed"),
+                started = it.exactLong("started"),
+                verified = it.exactLong("verified"),
+                cancelled = it.exactLong("cancelled"),
+            )
+        }
+
     private fun loadGuardrails(range: AdminAnalyticsWindow): AdminAnalyticsGuardrailRow =
         querySingle(
             """
@@ -861,28 +983,6 @@ private data class ActivationRow(
     val medianMinutes: Double?,
 )
 
-private fun valueEventsCte(): String =
-    """
-    WITH value_events AS (
-        SELECT
-            CONCAT('a:', user_id) AS identity_key,
-            created_at AS occurred_at
-        FROM credit_usage_records
-        UNION ALL
-        SELECT
-            COALESCE(
-                CONCAT('a:', i.account_id),
-                CONCAT('i:', e.installation_hash)
-            ) AS identity_key,
-            e.occurred_at
-        FROM product_analytics_events e
-        JOIN product_analytics_installations i
-          ON i.installation_hash = e.installation_hash
-        WHERE e.event_name = 'AI_FEATURE_SUCCEEDED'
-          AND e.execution_mode IN ('LOCAL', 'BYOK')
-    )
-    """.trimIndent()
-
 private fun AdminAnalyticsWindow.arguments(
     repetitions: Int = 1,
 ): List<Pair<IColumnType<*>, Any?>> = buildList {
@@ -892,13 +992,13 @@ private fun AdminAnalyticsWindow.arguments(
     }
 }
 
-private fun maturedWindowArguments(
-    from: Instant,
-    maturityEnd: Instant,
+private fun maturedCohortArguments(
+    range: AdminAnalyticsWindow,
+    observationDays: Long,
 ): List<Pair<IColumnType<*>, Any?>> =
     listOf(
-        INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to from,
-        INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to maxOf(from, maturityEnd),
+        INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to range.from.minusSeconds(observationDays * DAY_SECONDS),
+        INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to range.until.minusSeconds(observationDays * DAY_SECONDS),
     )
 
 private fun <T> querySingle(

src/main/kotlin/com/osglab/account/features/admin/stats/repositories/AdminStatsRepository.kt

@@ -114,8 +114,28 @@ class ExposedAdminStatsRepository(
                 ) AS registrations,
                 (
                     SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT user_id)
-                    FROM credit_usage_records
-                    WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ?
+                    FROM (
+                        SELECT user_id
+                        FROM credit_usage_records u
+                        JOIN accounts a ON a.id = u.user_id
+                        WHERE u.created_at >= ? AND u.created_at < ?
+                        UNION
+                        SELECT i.account_id AS user_id
+                        FROM product_analytics_events e
+                        JOIN product_analytics_installations i
+                          ON i.installation_hash = e.installation_hash
+                        WHERE e.occurred_at >= ? AND e.occurred_at < ?
+                          AND e.event_name = 'AI_FEATURE_SUCCEEDED'
+                          AND e.execution_mode IN ('LOCAL', 'BYOK')
+                          AND i.account_id IS NOT NULL
+                        UNION
+                        SELECT i.account_id AS user_id
+                        FROM keyboard_usage_daily_summaries s
+                        JOIN product_analytics_installations i
+                          ON i.installation_hash = s.installation_hash
+                        WHERE s.summary_date >= DATE(?) AND s.summary_date < DATE(?)
+                          AND i.account_id IS NOT NULL
+                    ) registered_activity
                 ) AS active_users,
                 (
                     SELECT COALESCE(SUM(balance), 0)
@@ -134,7 +154,7 @@ class ExposedAdminStatsRepository(
                     WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ?
                 ) AS consumed_credits
             """,
-            range.arguments(repetitions = 4),
+            range.arguments(repetitions = 6),
         ) { result ->
             AdminOverviewDto(
                 totalUsers = result.exactLong("total_users"),
@@ -148,7 +168,13 @@ class ExposedAdminStatsRepository(
 
     private fun loadReferralFunnel(range: AdminStatsRange): AdminReferralFunnelDto =
         querySingle(
-            """
+            identityValueEventsCte() +
+                """
+            , binding_cohort AS (
+                SELECT *
+                FROM referral_bindings
+                WHERE bound_at >= ? AND bound_at < ?
+            )
             SELECT
                 (
                     SELECT COUNT(*)
@@ -157,33 +183,47 @@ class ExposedAdminStatsRepository(
                 ) AS codes_created,
                 (
                     SELECT COUNT(*)
-                    FROM referral_bindings
-                    WHERE bound_at >= ? AND bound_at < ?
+                    FROM binding_cohort
                 ) AS bindings,
                 (
                     SELECT COUNT(*)
-                    FROM referral_bindings
+                    FROM binding_cohort r
+                    WHERE EXISTS (
+                        SELECT 1
+                        FROM value_events v
+                        WHERE v.identity_key = CONCAT('a:', r.invitee_user_id)
+                          AND v.occurred_at >= r.bound_at
+                          AND v.occurred_at < ?
+                    )
+                ) AS activated_bindings,
+                (
+                    SELECT COUNT(*)
+                    FROM binding_cohort
                     WHERE reward_status = 'REWARDED'
-                      AND rewarded_at >= ? AND rewarded_at < ?
+                      AND rewarded_at < ?
                 ) AS rewarded_bindings,
                 (
                     SELECT COUNT(*)
-                    FROM referral_bindings
+                    FROM binding_cohort
                     WHERE reward_status = 'PENDING'
-                      AND bound_at >= ? AND bound_at < ?
                 ) AS pending_bindings,
                 (
                     SELECT COUNT(*)
-                    FROM referral_bindings
+                    FROM binding_cohort
                     WHERE reward_status = 'INELIGIBLE_BUDGET'
-                      AND bound_at >= ? AND bound_at < ?
                 ) AS ineligible_bindings
             """,
-            range.arguments(repetitions = 5),
+            buildList {
+                addAll(range.arguments())
+                addAll(range.arguments())
+                add(INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to range.until)
+                add(INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to range.until)
+            },
         ) { result ->
             AdminReferralFunnelDto(
                 codesCreated = result.exactLong("codes_created"),
                 bindings = result.exactLong("bindings"),
+                activatedBindings = result.exactLong("activated_bindings"),
                 rewardedBindings = result.exactLong("rewarded_bindings"),
                 pendingBindings = result.exactLong("pending_bindings"),
                 ineligibleBindings = result.exactLong("ineligible_bindings"),
@@ -197,23 +237,19 @@ class ExposedAdminStatsRepository(
             """
             SELECT
                 inviter_user_id,
-                SUM(CASE WHEN bound_at >= ? AND bound_at < ? THEN 1 ELSE 0 END) AS invited_users,
+                COUNT(*) AS invited_users,
                 SUM(
                     CASE
                         WHEN reward_status = 'REWARDED'
-                         AND rewarded_at >= ? AND rewarded_at < ?
+                         AND rewarded_at < ?
                         THEN 1 ELSE 0
                     END
                 ) AS rewarded_users
             FROM referral_bindings
-            WHERE (bound_at >= ? AND bound_at < ?)
-               OR (
-                   reward_status = 'REWARDED'
-                   AND rewarded_at >= ? AND rewarded_at < ?
-               )
+            WHERE bound_at >= ? AND bound_at < ?
             GROUP BY inviter_user_id
             """,
-            range.arguments(repetitions = 4),
+            listOf(INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to range.until) + range.arguments(),
         ) { result ->
             ReferralBindingAggregateRow(
                 inviterUserId = result.getString("inviter_user_id"),
@@ -225,14 +261,19 @@ class ExposedAdminStatsRepository(
     private fun loadReferralCreditsByInviter(range: AdminStatsRange): Map<String, Long> =
         queryRows(
             """
-            SELECT user_id, COALESCE(SUM(amount_delta), 0) AS earned_credits
-            FROM credit_ledger
-            WHERE created_at >= ? AND created_at < ?
-              AND entry_type = 'REFERRAL_INVITER'
-              AND amount_delta > 0
-            GROUP BY user_id
+            SELECT
+                r.inviter_user_id AS user_id,
+                COALESCE(SUM(l.amount_delta), 0) AS earned_credits
+            FROM referral_bindings r
+            JOIN credit_ledger l
+              ON l.reference_id = r.id
+             AND l.entry_type = 'REFERRAL_INVITER'
+             AND l.amount_delta > 0
+            WHERE r.bound_at >= ? AND r.bound_at < ?
+              AND l.created_at < ?
+            GROUP BY r.inviter_user_id
             """,
-            range.arguments(),
+            range.arguments() + listOf(INSTANT_COLUMN_TYPE to range.until),
         ) { result ->
             result.getString("user_id") to result.exactLong("earned_credits")
         }.toMap()
@@ -312,13 +353,21 @@ private fun <T> queryRows(
     sql: String,
     arguments: List<Pair<IColumnType<*>, Any?>>,
     transform: (ResultSet) -> T,
-): List<T> = TransactionManager.current().exec(sql.trimIndent(), arguments) { result ->
-    buildList {
-        while (result.next()) {
-            add(transform(result))
-        }
+): List<T> {
+    val normalized = sql.trimIndent()
+    val executable = if (normalized.startsWith("WITH ", ignoreCase = true)) {
+        "SELECT * FROM (\n$normalized\n) AS admin_stats_result"
+    } else {
+        normalized
     }
-} ?: emptyList()
+    return TransactionManager.current().exec(executable, arguments) { result ->
+        buildList {
+            while (result.next()) {
+                add(transform(result))
+            }
+        }
+    } ?: emptyList()
+}
 
 private fun ResultSet.exactLong(column: String): Long =
     requireNotNull(getBigDecimal(column)) { "Aggregate column $column must not be null" }

src/main/kotlin/com/osglab/account/features/admin/stats/services/AdminProductAnalyticsService.kt

@@ -9,10 +9,12 @@ import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDt
 import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminAnalyticsGrowthDto
 import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminAnalyticsGuardrailsDto
 import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminAnalyticsKeyboardUsageDto
+import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminAnalyticsLatencyBucketDto
 import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminAnalyticsMonetizationDto
 import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminAnalyticsNorthStarDto
 import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminAnalyticsPeriodDto
 import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminAnalyticsRateDto
+import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminAnalyticsReferralSignalsDto
 import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.models.AdminProductAnalyticsDto
 import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.repositories.AdminAnalyticsCountRow
 import com.osglab.account.features.admin.stats.repositories.AdminAnalyticsWindow
@@ -100,13 +102,18 @@ class AdminProductAnalyticsService(
                 conversion7d = snapshot.monetization.conversion7d.toRate(),
                 conversion30d = snapshot.monetization.conversion30d.toRate(),
                 repeatPurchaseRate = snapshot.monetization.repeatPurchase.toRate(),
+                purchaseFunnel = listOf(
+                    AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("浏览购买页", snapshot.purchaseFunnel.viewed),
+                    AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("发起购买", snapshot.purchaseFunnel.started),
+                    AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("StoreKit 验证完成", snapshot.purchaseFunnel.verified),
+                ),
+                cancelledUsers = snapshot.purchaseFunnel.cancelled,
             ),
             growthFunnel = listOf(
-                AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("首次启动", growth.opened),
-                AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("完成注册", growth.registered),
+                AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("已完成 24h 观察的新安装", growth.opened),
+                AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("24 小时内完成注册", growth.registered),
                 AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("24 小时内首次 AI 成功", growth.activated),
-                AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("D7 再次使用 AI", growth.retainedD7),
-                AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("首次购买", growth.purchased),
+                AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("24 小时内完成首购", growth.purchased),
             ),
             retention = snapshot.retention.map { cohort ->
                 AdminAnalyticsCohortDto(
@@ -160,17 +167,26 @@ class AdminProductAnalyticsService(
                 mixedLanguageSessions = keyboard.mixedLanguageSessions,
                 otherOnlySessions = keyboard.otherOnlySessions,
             ),
+            referralSignals = AdminAnalyticsReferralSignalsDto(
+                shared = referrals.shared,
+                opened = referrals.opened,
+            ),
             referralFunnel = listOf(
-                AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("发起分享", referrals.shared),
-                AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("打开邀请", referrals.opened),
                 AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("完成绑定", referrals.bound),
-                AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("首次 AI 成功", referrals.activated),
+                AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("绑定后首次 AI 成功", referrals.activated),
                 AdminAnalyticsFunnelStepDto("完成奖励", referrals.rewarded),
             ),
             guardrails = AdminAnalyticsGuardrailsDto(
                 clientAiSuccessRate = snapshot.guardrails.clientSuccess.toRate(),
                 managedSuccessRate = snapshot.guardrails.managedSuccess.toRate(),
                 creditBlockedUsers = snapshot.guardrails.creditBlockedUsers,
+                latencyBuckets = snapshot.latencyDistribution.map {
+                    AdminAnalyticsLatencyBucketDto(
+                        bucket = it.bucket,
+                        successful = it.successful,
+                        failed = it.failed,
+                    )
+                },
             ),
         )
     }

src/main/kotlin/com/osglab/account/features/analytics/models/AnalyticsDtos.kt

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ import kotlinx.serialization.Serializable
 
 @Serializable
 data class AnalyticsBatchRequest(
-    val installationId: String,
+    val installationId: String? = null,
     val events: List<AnalyticsEventRequest>,
 ) {
     override fun toString(): String =
@@ -32,6 +32,8 @@ data class AnalyticsEventRequest(
     val durationBucket: AnalyticsDurationBucket? = null,
     val appVersion: String? = null,
     val osVersion: String? = null,
+    // Transitional compatibility for clients released before installationId moved to the batch.
+    val installationId: String? = null,
 ) {
     override fun toString(): String = "AnalyticsEventRequest([REDACTED])"
 }

src/main/kotlin/com/osglab/account/features/analytics/services/AnalyticsService.kt

@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ class DefaultAnalyticsService(
         if (request.events.size !in MIN_BATCH_SIZE..MAX_BATCH_SIZE) {
             throw InvalidRequestException("events must contain between 1 and 50 items")
         }
-        val installationId = parseUuid(request.installationId, "installationId")
+        val installationId = parseUuid(resolveInstallationId(request), "installationId")
         val now = clock.instant()
         val events = request.events.map { validateAndMap(it, now) }
         return repository.ingest(
@@ -62,6 +62,25 @@ class DefaultAnalyticsService(
         )
     }
 
+    private fun resolveInstallationId(request: AnalyticsBatchRequest): String {
+        val batchInstallationId = request.installationId
+        val eventInstallationIds = request.events.map(AnalyticsEventRequest::installationId)
+        if (batchInstallationId == null) {
+            if (eventInstallationIds.any { it == null }) {
+                throw InvalidRequestException("installationId is required")
+            }
+            val distinctIds = eventInstallationIds.filterNotNull().toSet()
+            if (distinctIds.size != 1) {
+                throw InvalidRequestException("event installationId values must match")
+            }
+            return distinctIds.single()
+        }
+        if (eventInstallationIds.filterNotNull().any { it != batchInstallationId }) {
+            throw InvalidRequestException("event installationId must match the batch")
+        }
+        return batchInstallationId
+    }
+
     override suspend fun ingestKeyboardUsage(
         accountId: UUID?,
         request: KeyboardUsageBatchRequest,